Key Insights:
- Bitcoin could enter a bear market in October if the four-year cycles remain valid.
- Analysts are warning of a possible $50,000 bottom by next year if bears take over.
- Ethereum is also showing signs of accumulation that could trigger a bullish breakout.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are approaching strong market moments that could affect their paths through the end of the year.
While this is happening, analysts are pointing out the risks of a major Bitcoin bear market starting in October. Ethereum, on the other hand, is flashing signals of strength despite recent consolidation.
Bitcoin Bear Market Worries Grow
Bitcoin has dropped 15% from its all-time high so far. This has created debates about whether the new cycle changes are near.
According to analyst Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal, in a recent X post, Bitcoin could enter a bear market next month.
He based his analysis on the “Repetition Fractal Cycle,” which is a model that tracks Bitcoin’s historical four-year trends.
Wedson said that the cycle indicates that Bitcoin may be close to its peak, which will likely be followed by a prolonged decline.
According to his predictions, prices could drop toward $50,000 by October of next year. While he admits that the cycles may not repeat perfectly, he believes the timing is perfectly in line with previous bear markets.
Can Bitcoin Defy the Four-Year Cycle?
The four-year cycle theory has guided traders for more than a decade. Yet the rising, growing institutional involvement, ETF speculation, and Bitcoin’s recognition as a mainstream asset are making this cycle different from earlier ones.
Wedson acknowledged these new dynamics and noted that institutional demand may change the expected pattern. Still, he warned that a macroeconomic downturn, when combined with the cycle trends, could accelerate bearish pressure.
As of writing, many traders are focused on the $100,000 support level. This means that a failure to hold that line could confirm the start of a bear trend. Some analysts are even suggesting that a retest could happen within a matter of weeks.
Ethereum Consolidates in Breakout Zone
While Bitcoin continues to face questions about its long-term cycle, Ethereum is showing mixed signals.
For starters, analyst Michael van de Poppe recently noted in a post that Bitcoin’s rejection from recent highs could weigh the cryptocurrency down.
However, on the other hand, it is worth noting that the asset gained over 68% in the last three months. However, it has been stalling recently, after losing 5% in a week. Despite this pullback, analysts are pointing towards metrics that could favor a breakout.
Additionally, the percentage of Ethereum supply in profit recently dropped from 98.4 per cent to 92.7 per cent. This decline usually points towards heavy profit-taking, but history indicates that rallies often come through once supply in profit reaches local bottoms.
Short-Term Holders Back Ethereum
Another bullish sign comes from Ethereum’s short-term holders. These investors tend to sell quickly, but have been accumulating instead. Their share of total ETH supply rose from 10.9% to 13% in just two weeks. This indicates that confidence in Ethereum has been growing lately for further gains.
Analysts believe this to be a signal of hidden demand, and when combined with reduced profit supply, Ethereum may have the foundation for a breakout above $4,494.
Analyst Mister Crypto noted this in a recent update, where he mentioned that Ethereum is currently trading in a falling wedge, and could be about to rebound towards the upside.
Comparing Bitcoin and Ethereum Outlooks
The outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum shows a possible divergence. Bitcoin is facing issues with its historical cycles and macroeconomic conditions, while Ethereum is benefiting from strong on-chain signals.
Investors must consider whether Bitcoin’s cycle is intact, or if new factors like institutional adoption might rewrite history.
Ethereum investors should focus on whether demand from both long- and short-term holders can fuel another rally despite the ongoing market uncertainty.
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